New location report
For someone who has not opened yet. There is no trading history, so every dollar below is Modelled from public benchmarks and my assumptions, each tested over a range. Replace the Modelled lines with quotes as you collect them.
Ski and snowboard hire, Thredbo NSW 2625
New site · Ski and snowboard hire shop · Thredbo Village, inside Kosciuszko National Park · Assessed 17 October 2026 for the 2027 season
These are the starting assumptions in this report. They are modelled, not figures from a trading business.
| Item | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Concept | Village hire shop, 150 sets: 100 ski, 50 snowboard |
| Trading days | 100 2026 had 99 days open |
| Rent assumed | $96,000 a year not quoted by anyone |
| Premises | None found no village shop is publicly listed |
| Start-up capital | $319,430 modelled |
| Mature-year revenue | $505,745 average snow, modelled |
Freshness: conditions, prices and listings read on 17 October 2026. The only published resort hire price table is for 2024. Lift prices are for 2026, with 2027 season passes on sale from 1 October 2026. All dollars are AUD, ex-GST, in today's dollars, before tax and finance. No Thredbo village rent is public, so rent is an assumption.
43 out of 100 VERIFY Money check: fails
The score is 43 because demand is strong (72) and visitors spend well (68), but the four things that decide whether a shop can open and earn are weak: no premises you can rent today (15), scarce staff housing (30), unreliable snow (33) and heavy competition (40). That puts it just inside VERIFY (40 to 64) and close to AVOID (below 40), so read it as a lean toward AVOID. The money check also fails: at an assumed rent, the shop does not earn its capital back.
The 3 things that matter most
- You cannot yet rent a shop. EVT has held the head lease for nearly 40 years and the NSW government lease runs to 2057. I found no village shop to lease: the four listings under the Thredbo postcode are all in Jindabyne, 33 km away. Nothing here is investable until a premises route exists in writing.
- At an assumed $96,000 rent, the open-market shop does not earn its capital back. Start-up capital is $319,430. An average-snow year earns -$2,213 after fleet renewal with a paid manager. Run it yourself and it earns $50,274 for about six months of full-time work and $319,430 at risk, a 15.7% return before any wage for you.
- Snow sets the downside. The 2026 Spencers Creek peak was 94.5 cm, 48% of the long-term average and the third-lowest on record. EVT cut its Thredbo valuation from $292 million to $143 million and calls the resort "structurally exposed to a warming climate". A 2026-type year costs $73,224 if you work unpaid ($125,712 with a paid manager).
These scores are my judgement from the evidence in this report, weighted equally. They are not Locatalyze engine output and will differ from it.
Start-up capital: $319,430 before the first customer
The fleet is the only large item you can sell back, and its resale value is not in my data. Unit costs are my assumptions: $800 a ski set (skis, boots, poles), $650 a snowboard set (board, boots), $60 a helmet and $160 a clothing set, bought in bulk. A US vendor guide puts new skis at US$300 to $700 a pair and boots at US$80 to $200, so treat my figures as plausible, not quoted. Modelled
| Item | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Rental fleet | $124,300 | 38.9% |
| Workshop and tuning equipment | $12,000 | 3.8% |
| Fit-out, racking, boot dryers, counter, signage | $50,000 | 15.7% |
| POS and hire-management system | $5,000 | 1.6% |
| Rent during fit-out | $16,000 | 5.0% |
| Legal, lease review, company set-up | $8,000 | 2.5% |
| Insurance first premium, licences, approvals | $10,000 | 3.1% |
| Recruitment, training, uniforms | $6,000 | 1.9% |
| Launch marketing | $10,000 | 3.1% |
| Contingency at 10% of the items above | $24,130 | 7.6% |
| Security deposit or bank guarantee, 3 months rent | $24,000 | 7.5% |
| Working capital for the first weeks | $30,000 | 9.4% |
| Total start-up capital | $319,430 | 100.0% |
Rent during fit-out and the deposit use the assumed $8,000 a month. The deposit is refundable at the end of a lease but is excluded from payback. Contingency is applied to everything except the deposit and working capital.
With a paid manager the shop only breaks even; run it yourself and it earns $50,274
One full trading year at maturity: 7,095 hire-days at $71.28 each. Year 1 is lower because I ramp demand to 75% of maturity, 90% in year 2. Modelled
Bars show each line as a share of revenue. Every cost line is an assumption, so the bars are striped. Owner-run adds back the manager: EBITDA $85,078, profit after renewal $50,274, which is 15.7% of the capital. The shop pays you about what it would pay a manager (-$2,213 more), while your $319,430 is at risk.
Revenue is lumpy. The 28 peak days (school holiday weeks, long weekends, best-snow weekends) carry 50% of revenue with about 127.5 sets out a day. The 26 shoulder days carry 30% and the 46 quiet days only 19%, with about 30.0 sets out. You buy the fleet and roster the shop for the peak and carry the quiet days. Modelled
A poor-snow year loses money on every route; an average year only breaks even once a manager is paid
Demand index scales hire-days. Strong snow is anchored on EVT's 10.6% FY26 revenue lift after the strong 2025 winter, so I use 1.11. Poor snow at 0.70 is my assumption, because no Thredbo skier-visit series is public. Poor years also carry a 5% price cut. Modelled
| Scenario | Index | Hire-days | Revenue | EBITDA | Profit, paid manager | Profit, owner-run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor snow (2026-type) | 0.70 | 4,967 | $336,320 | -$90,908 | -$125,712 | -$73,224 |
| Average snow | 1.00 | 7,095 | $505,745 | $32,591 | -$2,213 | $50,274 |
| Strong snow (2025-type) | 1.11 | 7,875 | $561,376 | $71,805 | $37,001 | $89,489 |
| Year 1, average snow | 1.00 x 0.75 | 5,321 | $379,308 | -$56,533 | -$91,337 | -$38,849 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Profit is after fleet renewal and before tax. EBITDA and the paid-manager profit include the manager. A first-year, 2026-type season run by an owner who works unpaid loses about $96,669 at EBITDA, so the safe funding level is the $319,430 outlay plus that loss, about $416,099.
Volume and yield each move profit by $47,287 to $53,474 a year; rent is fifth
Change in mature-year profit after renewal (paid manager basis) when one input moves and the rest stays put. Left bar is the bad move, right bar the good move. Modelled
Break-even is 100.6% of base volume, so there is no margin for a bad year
Break-even is 7,139 hire-days against 7,095 in the base case, so an average season falls short by under 1%. At $96,000 a year the rent is just above the break-even rent ($93,787). For a 5-year payback with a paid manager, rent would have to fall to about $35,172, close to what Jindabyne shops ask ($32,400 to $55,063 a year for 150 m²). Modelled
Owner-run profit after renewal. Green clears the 4-year payback rule
Cells show mature-year profit after renewal if you run the shop and take no wage. Green cells earn at least 25% of the capital for that rent ($79,858 at $96,000). Amber is positive but below the rule, red loses money. Volumes below 80% include the 5% price cut. The outlined cell is the base case. The 25% rule is my screen: it implies about a four-year payback once you allow for a slow first year. Modelled
| Rent a year | 70% | 85% | 100% | 111% | 125% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $36,000capital $293,430 | -$13,224 | $56,800 | $110,274 | $149,489 | $169,088 |
| $60,000capital $303,830 | -$37,224 | $32,800 | $86,274 | $125,489 | $145,088 |
| $96,000capital $319,430 | -$73,224 | -$3,200 | $50,274 | $89,489 | $109,088 |
| $120,000capital $329,830 | -$97,224 | -$27,200 | $26,274 | $65,489 | $85,088 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all volumes.
Owner-run, the shop clears the rule at about $69,308 a year rent, or at 108% of base volume at $96,000, or at 97% of base volume at $60,000. A paid-manager shop clears it only at about $21,951 a year rent, or 143% of base volume at $96,000. Modelled
A 12-month lease charges $64,000 for eight months with no trading
The season runs about 100 days from June to September, but a standard lease bills 12 months. If a landlord allowed a five-month seasonal tenancy at the same monthly rate, rent falls to $40,000, which saves $56,000 a year and lifts mature profit to $53,787 with a paid manager or $106,274 owner-run. A turnover-linked rent does a similar job by moving the risk to the landlord. Whether either is on offer is unknown, so ask. Modelled
Only a strong-snow run gets your capital back, and only in year 5
Cumulative cash if you run the shop and take no wage, starting from the $319,430 outlay. Year 1 uses the 75% ramp, year 2 the 90% ramp. Fleet renewal starts in year 2. Above the dotted line the capital is recovered. Paying a manager lowers every line by $52,488 a year. Modelled
| Path | Year 1 cash | After year 3 | After year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong snow every year | $25,365 | -$154,658 | +$24,319 |
| Average snow every year | -$4,045 | -$258,576 | -$158,028 |
| Replay of 2024, 2025, 2026, then average | -$44,151 | -$386,888 | -$286,339 |
| Poor snow in years 2 and 4, otherwise average | -$4,045 | -$369,725 | -$392,675 |
The replay maps the three real seasons to demand indices of 0.85 for 2024 (peak depth 124.6 cm, closed 11 September), 1.11 for 2025 and 0.70 for 2026. Those mappings are my assumptions. With a paid manager the base path is -$420,465 after year 5 and the strong path is -$238,119. No tax, finance cost or fleet resale value is included.
Only a small owner-run space comes close; a Jindabyne workshop does not
The same model with route-specific inputs. Profit is mature-year, after renewal, in poor, average and strong snow, then cumulative cash after five average seasons. R3 and R4 are smaller shops with the owner working unpaid. Modelled
| Route | Capital | Revenue | Poor snow | Average | Strong | 5-season cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 Open-market village shop150 sets, $96,000 rent, paid manager | $319,430 | $505,745 | -$125,712 | -$2,213 | $37,001 | -$420,465 |
| R2 Village shop, owner works unpaidAs R1, no manager cost (your labour is the return) | $319,430 | $505,745 | -$73,224 | $50,274 | $89,489 | -$158,028 |
| R3 Shared or lodge space, owner-run120 sets, $40,000 rent, $30,000 fit-out, owner works unpaid | $245,817 | $404,596 | -$44,337 | $52,095 | $82,598 | -$54,556 |
| R4 Jindabyne workshop with Thredbo delivery, owner-run90 sets, $42,000 rent, Jindabyne prices (yield -15%), clothing attach 10%, $20,000 van and delivery, owner works unpaid | $219,338 | $240,660 | -$128,488 | -$78,790 | -$63,455 | -$641,199 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
R3 assumes the same fleet use per set as the village shop and a $40,000 rent with a $30,000 fit-out; whether a lodge or club would host a hire counter at that price is unknown. R4 assumes yield 15% below my village list, whereas Rhythm's Cooma prices sit 23% to 33% below it, so R4 is, if anything, generous.
What would flip the verdict
- Premises at or below about $69,308 a year for roughly 150 m², with the owner working unpaid. That is $640 per m² at the assumed rent against about $367 per m² at the top of the Jindabyne asks.
- Or a rent structure that charges for the season only, such as a five-month tenancy or turnover rent, which is worth $56,000 a year at the assumed rate.
- And evidence of volume: two or three signed accommodation or school-group partnerships before you order the fleet. At the assumed rent you need about 108% of base volume to clear the rule.
- And funding of about $416,099, so that a poor first season does not end the business before the second.
Try different numbers
Only the figures in this section change. Each line starts at the mature-year amount in the report. Costs stay as you set them when revenue changes.
Manager cost is included.
Break-even rent is $93,787 a year, $2,213 above the rent in this scenario.
The landlord is the bottleneck, not demand
Thredbo Village sits inside Kosciuszko National Park, and EVT runs the village services, real estate and lease arrangements. I found no vacancy listing and no expression-of-interest page, so availability is unknown, not closed. The only way to find out is to ask EVT, lodge owners and existing hire or retail operators directly. Public
EVT plans to divest about $800 million of non-core property and has an independent strategic review due later this financial year; its chief executive said "Everything is genuinely on the table". Thredbo was not named as being for sale, and EVT's August 2026 results do not list it among the divestments. A new owner or a changed strategy would still change your landlord's terms and its appetite for a competing hire shop. Public
| Route | What it is | Evidence | My read |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tenancy or licence from EVT | A village shop on a lease or licence from the head lessee | No listing found. EVT also runs its own rental at both lift bases, so it may not want a competitor (my judgement) | Ask first. Low to medium odds |
| B. Take over an existing operator | Buy a hire or retail business and have its lease assigned to you | Jindabyne Sports Thredbo trades from Shop 2 Squatters Run, so non-EVT retailers do hold village premises. No business is known to be for sale | Medium. Needs landlord consent and a price I cannot see |
| C. Partner with a lodge, club or hotel | A hire counter, or guaranteed delivery, for a property's guests on commission or revenue share | About 4,150 beds (Wikipedia, undated), in lodges, hotels and apartments. A US guide puts referral commissions at 10% to 15% | Medium. Lowest rent, lower walk-in (R3) |
| D. Jindabyne workshop with Thredbo deliveryEasiest to access | Rent a Jindabyne unit and pre-hire or deliver to Thredbo guests | Asks of $216 to $367 per m². Rhythm and other Jindabyne and Cooma shops already pre-hire there 23% to 33% below my village prices | High access, weak economics (R4) |
| E. Counter inside an existing retailer | A demo, tuning or boot-fit counter in a village shop | Jindabyne Sports already sells demo skis and boot fitting at Squatters Run | Low to medium. A niche, not a hire business |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Jindabyne asks $216 to $367 per m² a year; my village rent is $640
The only rents published under the Thredbo postcode. They are in Jindabyne, not the village, and not hire shops. My assumed rent works out at 1.7 to 3.0 times these asks for a 150 m² shop. A village premium is plausible, but its size is unknown. Asking rents, ex-GST, as listed. Public Modelled
| Listing | Area m² | Rent a year | Per m² | At 150 m² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 1/7-9 Baggs Street, JindabyneShop and retail | 35 | $10,800$900 a month | $309 | $46,286 |
| Bay 1B/7-9 Baggs Street, JindabyneOther | 50 | $10,800$900 a month | $216 | $32,400 |
| 18A/33 Kosciuszko Road, JindabyneOther (restaurant) | 158 | $58,000$4,833 a month | $367 | $55,063 |
Source: commercialrealestate.com.au listings page for Thredbo NSW 2625, read on 17 October 2026. A fourth listing, 1/7 Baggs Street (290 m², hospitality), says contact agent and is excluded. The $1,115.38 weekly rent is annualised over 52 weeks. realcommercial.com.au could not be read, so this is not the whole market. Asking rents are not achieved rents.
- Is any village retail space available for a hire shop, on what term and what process?
- Is rent fixed, turnover-linked or seasonal, and what are outgoings?
- Are you allowed to compete with EVT's own rental, and are there exclusivity clauses with other tenants?
- What happens to my tenancy if the head lessee changes?
- Is staff housing available in the village or Jindabyne, and at what cost?
- Does a sublease or licence from a head lessee give security if the head lease or ownership changes?
- What are the make-good, assignment and personal guarantee terms?
- What does public and product liability cost for hire equipment and who tests binding release settings?
- Does business interruption cover a snow-less season? Usually it does not, so price the exclusion.
- Which approvals does a business inside the National Park need beyond the landlord's consent?
Strong brand and visitor spend, but hire is already served at the lift base
Visitors pay premium prices to be here, which supports village-level hire pricing. It also means skiers who buy an annual pass (2027 adult from $1,729) are likely to own gear, so they are not your customers. Public
| Item | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Adult day lift ticket, 2026 | $157 to $259 | Base to peak price |
| Child day lift ticket, 2026 | $95 to $139 | Base to peak price |
| Adult season pass, 2026 | $1,899 | Ages 22 to 64 |
| Adult season pass, 2027 | from $1,729 | Ages 25 to 64, first tier. Young adult (18 to 24) from $1,379, kids from $949. Season cover 12 June to 4 October 2027 |
| Ikon Base Pass add-on, 2027 | $599 | Five days or unlimited at 60+ destinations; points to destination skiers |
Core hire at $62.25 a day including GST is 24% of a $259 peak adult ticket and 40% of a $157 base ticket. The 2026 lift prices are from SnowStash, which also lists a youth peak price below its base price, so read the youth figures with care.
A village market of about 107,148 hire-days; you need 6.6% of it
No Thredbo skier-visit series is public, so I size the village hire market bottom-up and cross-check it against lift revenue. Modelled
| Step | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Beds in the village | 4,150 | Wikipedia, undated Public |
| Bed-nights over 100 days at 45% occupancy | 186,750 | Occupancy is my assumption Modelled |
| Skier-days from village guests | 158,738 | 0.85 skiers or boarders per occupied bed Modelled |
| Hire-days from village guests | 79,369 | 50% hire, above the one third found by SIA's 2010 US and Canada rental survey, because many Thredbo guests travel from interstate Modelled |
| Day visitors and walk-ins who hire | 27,779 | 35% on top of village hire-days Modelled |
| Village hire market | 107,148 | Hire-days a season |
Cross-check: ABC reported about $50 million of Thredbo lift-ticket revenue. At a realised $90 to $140 per skier-day that is 357,143 to 555,556 skier-days, and at a third to a half hiring, 117,857 to 277,778 hire-days across the whole resort. My village figure sits below that range, which fits two facts: many skiers stay in Jindabyne and pre-hire there, and EVT's rental takes the walk-ins at the lift. Your 7,095 hire-days are 2.6% to 6.0% of the cross-check range. Modelled
Threat ratings are my judgement. Competitor sales are not public, and I did not check prices in store. Public
| Rival | Threat | Trading detail | What matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thredbo Rental (EVT)Friday Flat (winter only) and Valley Terminal (year-round) | High | $300,000 invested in refreshing the fleet each winter; premium fleet never more than 3 years old; premium has unlimited swaps; clothing, helmets, demo, lockers, valet and tuning; day-before pickup after 3pm; bundles with lift tickets. EVT advertised up to 50% off rentals for early online booking | Sits at the lift base, so it captures walk-ins, and it can discount at will. It sets the price and quality bar |
| Rhythm SnowsportsCooma hire; recommends pick-up before reaching Thredbo or Perisher | High | 10% off for pre-booking online. Adult basic ski or board 3 days $115 (about $38 a day), Learn to Turn $150, Demo $170 | 23% to 33% below my village list, and guests pass it on the way up |
| Other Jindabyne and Cooma hire shopsNot researched by name | Medium | Not checked | Same pre-hire pitch; Jindabyne has the bulk of the bed supply |
| Jindabyne Sports ThredboShop 2 Squatters Run, near the Kosciuszko chairlift | Medium | Retail, boot fitting and a demo ski shop; the page does not describe a standalone rental service | Proves a non-EVT operator holds a village shop; competes for the premium and demo guest |
| Guests who own gearSeason-pass holders and frequent skiers | Medium | Adult 2027 season pass from $1,729 | Shrinks the hire pool; my judgement, no data on ownership |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Rhythm's basic hire is 23% below my village list; Thredbo's own range brackets it
Per day on a 3-day hire, GST-inclusive. My village list is Basic $50, Learn to Turn $65, Demo $85 a day, so the core average is $62.25, or $56.59 ex-GST. After a 10% online discount on 40% of bookings, plus helmets ($9.00) and clothing ($7.95) per hire-day, yield is $71.28. Modelled
| Rhythm, Cooma, 2026 | 3-day total | Per day | My list a day | Rhythm is |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic (first timer) | $115 | $38.33 | $50 | 23% below |
| Learn to Turn | $150 | $50.00 | $65 | 23% below |
| Demo | $170 | $56.67 | $85 | 33% below |
| New Demo | $190 | $63.33 | n/a | No equivalent |
| Thredbo Rental, 2024 tables | 3-day totals | Per day |
|---|---|---|
| Sport package (3 days) | $132 / $183 / $255 | $44.00 / $61.00 / $85.00 |
| Premium package (3 days) | $207 / $258 / $312 | $69.00 / $86.00 / $104.00 |
Thredbo's page shows three unlabelled price tables (I list them lowest to highest), and does not say which applies when, or adult versus child. These are 2024 prices, the latest published. Rhythm's page does not say whether its prices include GST, and I read them as GST-inclusive.
2026 peaked at 48% of the long-term average; the resort says it is exposed to a warming climate
Peak snow depth at Spencers Creek (1,830 m), the standard Snowy Mountains gauge, with each year as a share of the 1955 to 2024 average. Public
| Measure | Fact |
|---|---|
| 2026 season length | Opened 6 June on snowmaking at Friday Flat; 99 days open to 13 September. Sources conflict on the end date (a scheduled 5 October appears elsewhere), so read it as about 100 days |
| Early September depth | 3 September 2026: 31.2 cm, the lowest on record for the date. First-week-September depth averaged over 180 cm in the 1950s to 1970s and about 120 cm in the 2020s before 2026 |
| Long-run trend | ABC reports that Spencers Creek receives 10% less snow this century |
| EVT results | FY26 Thredbo revenue up 10.6% and EBITDA up 13.7% on the favourable 2025 winter; winter 2026 EBITDA tracking below last year. April guidance was $22 to $23 million, before the poor June |
| Valuation | Thredbo cut from $292 million to $143 million (-51%). EVT calls it "structurally exposed to a warming climate", and says the write-down reflects capital spending still needed on new chairlifts and snowmaking |
| Drive tourism | EVT's April 2026 update flagged weaker "drive" demand in the Snowy Mountains and a fuel cost effect on drive tourism |
Spencers Creek depth is not Thredbo's resort snow cover, which snowmaking supports. It is a proxy for natural snow. One source captioned the record low peak and shortest season as 2006, so I do not state the record year.
You compete with the resort for casual staff who mostly live 33 km away
Thredbo has about 300 year-round residents and Jindabyne about 4,000. EVT says most of its staff live in Jindabyne and commute about 30 minutes; it holds a limited number of beds, and the few in Thredbo go to night-shift staff, supervisors and managers. Public transport runs in winter only. I included $20,000 a year for staff housing and commuting, which is an assumption. Award rates for hire staff vary, so confirm the classification with the Fair Work Ombudsman. Public Modelled
Visitor age, origin and spend are not published at village level in the sources I could read, so I have not used Census data: Thredbo's residents are not the customer base. Ask EVT or Destination NSW for visitor surveys.
A gated plan to the 2027 season
The 2027 season pass is sold for 12 June to 4 October 2027, so I plan to open for the first weekend. Money is committed only after each gate. Dates are my proposal. Friday Flat opened on 6 June in 2026 on snowmaking, so an earlier start is possible but not reliable.
| By | Step | Gate: stop if |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2026 | Find a premises route. Approach EVT, three lodges or hotels, and any existing hire or retail operator. Ask for rent, term and structure in writing | No written offer at or below about $69,308 a year (or a partnership), so do nothing financial |
| 31 Jan 2027 | Lease and funding. Solicitor reviews term, assignment and change-of-control protection. Insurance quotes. Raise about $416,099 | Funding below $319,430, or no protection if the head lessee changes |
| 31 Mar 2027 | Fleet order. Quotes from at least three suppliers; ask for early-order, 30-day and season-end terms. Sign up two or three accommodation or group partners | Fewer than two partners. The $124,300 fleet is the first spend you cannot undo |
| Apr to May 2027 | Fit-out and people. Fit-out, hire software, recruit and house a crew of seven plus a manager, train on fitting and release settings | Staff beds not secured |
| 12 June 2027 | Open. Soft-open on the pass start date and track hire-days against the run rate | By 30 June, below the break-even pace of about 7,139 hire-days for the season |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Ranked by dollar impact on mature-year profit (paid manager basis). Values come from the model and move with your quotes. Modelled
| # | Opportunity | Annual value | Effort |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seasonal tenancy or turnover rentRent charged for five months, not twelve | $56,000 a year | High |
| 2 | Lift yield 10%Mix toward Learn to Turn and Demo, helmets and clothing on every booking, a damage waiver | $47,287 a year | Medium |
| 3 | Lift volume 15%Accommodation partnerships, school groups, online pre-booking with a lift ticket bundle | $46,065 a year | Medium |
| 4 | Cut staff hours 15%Pre-fit online, rush-hour roster, pickup the night before | $29,858 a year | Medium |
| 5 | Work the shop yourselfReplaces the manager; this is your pay, not a profit | $52,488 a year | High |
| 6 | Summer use of the premisesBike or hiking hire. EVT runs summer mountain biking; not sized | Not sized | High |
| 7 | Demo, tuning and boot-fit serviceJindabyne Sports already trades this niche; not sized | Not sized | Medium |
- Does a seasonal business with one trading season suit a company or trust, and when do I register for GST?
- How are fleet purchases depreciated and what can be written off?
- What would a seasonal borrowing facility cost against a poor-snow year?
- Which payroll on-costs apply to casuals and a seasonal manager?
- How should I treat the refundable deposit?
- What is the price per ski set, snowboard set, helmet and clothing set at 150 sets?
- Are there early-order, 30-day or season-end terms, and trade-in or buy-back values?
- What lead time applies for an April order?
- Who services bindings, and who certifies release settings?
- What repair and tuning kit do you recommend and cost?
Cited findings
No village shop is publicly available to lease
Why it matters: the head lessee controls the supply of premises, so the first gate is a landlord, not a business plan.
Source: ABC News, 27 August 2026 (head lease and the lease to 2057); commercialrealestate.com.au listings, read 17 October 2026.
EVT cut Thredbo's valuation from $292 million to $143 million
Why it matters: the owner of your landlord's asset calls it "structurally exposed to a warming climate" and has a strategic review under way.
Source: ABC News, 27 August 2026, on EVT's annual results.
The 2026 peak at Spencers Creek was 94.5 cm, the third-lowest on record
Why it matters: it was 48% of the long-term average of 197 cm, against 2025 at about 220 cm, so the demand swing a shop must survive is large.
Source: Elders Weather, 3 September 2026; ABC News, 24 September 2025.
Thredbo Rental refreshes its fleet with $300,000 every winter
Why it matters: the rival at both lift bases keeps premium gear under 3 years old and can discount early online bookings.
Source: thredbo.com.au ski and snowboard rental page; EVT, winter 2026 booking release.
Rhythm's Cooma hire is 23% to 33% below my village price list
Why it matters: guests pass Jindabyne and Cooma on the way up, and pre-booking online saves another 10%.
Source: Rhythm Snowsports hire prices (Cooma, 2026); Thredbo Rental 2024 price tables.
At $96,000 rent, an average year earns -$2,213 with a paid manager
Why it matters: the open-market route breaks even at best, and only a strong-snow run with you working unpaid recovers the capital in five seasons.
Source: my model, Modelled. Break-even rent $93,787.
A 12-month lease bills $64,000 for the eight months you do not trade
Why it matters: lease structure is worth $56,000 a year, more than any single operating lever except volume and yield.
Source: my model, Modelled.
43 out of 100, which is VERIFY and close to AVOID
Equal-weight mean of six scored dimensions (weights add to 100). Occupancy cost is excluded because it has no score.
What pushed the score up
- A premium visitor base: adult peak lift ticket $259, season pass $1,899
- EVT revenue up 10.6% on a strong winter
- About 4,150 beds in a compact village
What held it down
- No premises publicly available; one landlord controls supply
- 2026 peak depth third-lowest on record; valuation halved
- EVT's rental at both lift bases; Jindabyne 23% to 33% cheaper
- Casual staff 33 km away with limited beds
Ranked by severity
No premises, or premises only at a rent the shop cannot carry
Action: make a written premises offer the first gate, with $69,308 a year (about 150 m²) as the ceiling.
A poor-snow year, or several
Action: fund $416,099, favour seasonal rent, and keep fleet purchases staged. A 2026-type year costs $73,224 owner-run.
Landlord change or strategy shift
Action: EVT's strategic review is open. Require assignment and change-of-control protection in writing, and a term of at least five seasons.
Rent billed for months with no trading
Action: negotiate a seasonal tenancy or turnover rent. Otherwise $64,000 a year is dead rent.
The resort's own rental and Jindabyne price pressure
Action: do not compete on price alone; sell fit, service, lodge delivery and bundles.
Staff supply and housing
Action: secure beds or a shared house before the fleet order, and test the roster against peak days.
Fleet capital tied up and ageing
Action: stage the order, ask for buy-back or trade-in terms, and budget $34,804 a year to renew. Resale value is not in my data.
Weaker drive tourism or fuel costs
Action: favour accommodation partnerships that sell packages to guests who have already committed to stay.
Safety, liability and approvals
Action: not researched in this report; ask your solicitor and insurer about binding-release testing standards, public and product liability, and National Park approvals.
- A written premises or partnership offer at about $69,308 a year or less for roughly 150 m²
- Rent charged for the season, or linked to turnover
- A term of five or more seasons, with assignment and change-of-control protection
- Two or three signed accommodation or group partners before the fleet order
- Staff housing secured, and funding of about $416,099 in hand
- The lease or licence, read by a retail lease solicitor
- Rent, outgoings and exclusivity from EVT or the landlord
- Fleet prices at 150 sets, and buy-back terms
- Award classification and pay rates for hire staff
- Insurance cover and National Park approvals
How far to trust each part
| Part | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Money | Low. Revenue, costs and rent are my assumptions, with tested ranges. No quote or Thredbo trading data underlies them. |
| Market size | Low to medium. Beds are from an undated Wikipedia figure, occupancy and hire share are assumed, and the lift-revenue cross-check uses an assumed yield per skier-day. |
| Tenure | Medium. The head lease and 2057 date are from ABC reporting of EVT's results. No private route into a tenancy was researched. |
| Snow and climate | Medium to high. Spencers Creek data is consistent across sources except one record-year caption. It is a proxy for Thredbo, not the resort itself. |
| Competitors | Medium. Store pages only. Resort prices are 2024; Rhythm is 2026 and for Cooma. |
| Rents | Low. Three Jindabyne asking rents; no village rents. |
| Customers | Low. No visitor survey or Census data used. |
| Location score | Low to medium. My judgement from the evidence above. |
Sources: ABC News, 27 August 2026, on EVT's annual results and the Thredbo valuation; EVT ASX announcements of 23 February 2026, 24 April 2026 and 24 August 2026; thredbo.com.au ski and snowboard rental page, rental pricing page (2024), Jindabyne Sports Thredbo page, development, about and jobs pages; EVT news release on winter 2026 bookings; Mountain Watch on the Winter 2027 season pass and on the 2024 season; SnowStash on 2026 lift tickets and season; Snowbrains on the 2026 opening; Elders Weather, 3 September 2026, on Spencers Creek depth; ABC News, 24 September 2025, on the 2025 season; Rhythm Snowsports hire prices (Cooma, 2026); commercialrealestate.com.au listings for Thredbo NSW 2625, read 17 October 2026; Wikipedia for Thredbo (beds and lease history); Fair Work Ombudsman minimum wages, from 1 July 2026; Reservety ski rental start-up guide (US, in USD), used only for fleet and replacement benchmarks; Ski Area Management (SAM), 5 November 2010, on SIA's rental equipment survey. Analysis only. This is not legal or financial advice.