New location report
For someone who has not opened yet. There is no trading history, so every dollar below is Modelled from public benchmarks and my assumptions, each tested over a range. Replace the Modelled lines with quotes and counts as you collect them.
Specialty coffee roaster and café, Collingwood VIC 3066
New site · Roastery-café with wholesale, retail and online sales · Collingwood, City of Yarra, inner north-east Melbourne · Assessed 17 October 2026 for a June 2028 opening
These are the starting assumptions in this report. They are modelled, not figures from a trading business.
| Item | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Concept | Roastery-café, 12 kg roaster, café, wholesale and online |
| Premises | 150 m² back-street site at $420 per m² all-in, assumed |
| Café customers a day | 140 at maturity, base case, 1.5 times an average café |
| Wholesale accounts | 8.8 at maturity, base case, about a fair share |
| Start-up capital | $898,225 modelled |
| Mature-year revenue | $1,154,157 café, wholesale and retail, modelled |
Freshness: listings, job ads, price pages, council pages and competitor pages read on 17 October 2026. Census figures are from 2021. No Collingwood café sales or footfall counts are public, and no listing I found states a café or roastery rent, so customers, rents and wages are assumptions. All dollars are AUD, ex-GST, in today's dollars, before tax and finance.
52 out of 100 VERIFY Money check: thin
Do not commit capital yet. The score is 52 because demand is real (66) and Collingwood spends well (68), but at least nine roasters already trade within about 2 km (25), good premises are costly and a roaster needs council and EPA clearance (45), and café trade is thin and swings with the economy (52). That puts it in VERIFY (40 to 64), 12 points above AVOID (below 40). The money check is thin: the roastery-café earns about $147,869 a year after renewal, but only $52,669 once you pay yourself a market wage ($95,200), a 5.9% return on $898,225 of capital.
The 3 things that matter most
- The base case is a good café with a small roaster, and it only just pays a wage. About 140 customers a day ($786,492 of café sales, 1.5 times the national average café) plus 8.8 wholesale accounts bring revenue to $1,154,157. After $898,225 of capital the owner-paid profit is $52,669. A weak market (95 customers a day, 4.4 accounts) loses $46,826 a year after renewal, and a strong one earns $372,683.
- Most of the money is the building, not the beans. Fit-out is 45% of start-up capital and the roaster with its afterburner 11%. At base volumes the roaster runs at about 15% of the weekly capacity of a 12 kg machine, so quote a smaller or used roaster before you commit.
- Competition, not demand, is the limit. At least nine roasters or roaster-cafés trade within about 2 km, including Allpress, Proud Mary, ACOFFEE and Toby's Estate, and the Johnston Street strip alone has 39 cafés and restaurants. You win trade by taking it from them, so the base case assumes only 8.8 wholesale accounts, about a fair share among 25 roasters.
These scores are my judgement from the evidence in this report, weighted equally. They are not Locatalyze engine output and will differ from it.
Start-up capital: $898,225 before the first customer
The fit-out is the largest item and has no resale value in my data. Unit costs are my assumptions, not quotes. Fit-out is $2,700 per m², inside the Melbourne café range of $2,525 to $3,325 per m² for a basic to mid-tier build (whatsthedamage.com.au, updated October 2026); another 2026 guide gives $3,000 to $5,000 per m² for a standard build. The 12 kg roaster is $50,000, the price of a new, never-commissioned Probat P12 listed by a Sydney dealer at $50,000 plus GST, which also says new units currently have lead times of about 12 months. I found no price for the $45,000 afterburner, flue and gas supply, so get quotes. Modelled
| Item | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Fit-out incl. kitchen, espresso machine, grinders, extraction: 150 m² at $2,700 | $405,000 | 45.1% |
| 12 kg gas roaster (Probat P12 class) | $50,000 | 5.6% |
| Afterburner, flue, gas supply and noise control | $45,000 | 5.0% |
| Roastery kit: green storage, scales, sample roaster, cupping, packing | $24,000 | 2.7% |
| Delivery van, used, with signage | $32,000 | 3.6% |
| Equipment on loan to the first 9 wholesale accounts, at $4,500 | $40,500 | 4.5% |
| Design, planning permit, building permit, food registration, legal | $42,000 | 4.7% |
| Brand, website, online shop and launch | $22,000 | 2.4% |
| Opening stock: green coffee, packaging, food, consumables | $26,000 | 2.9% |
| Rent during fit-out | $15,750 | 1.8% |
| Contingency at 10% of the items above | $70,225 | 7.8% |
| Lease bond or bank guarantee: three months of rent and outgoings | $15,750 | 1.8% |
| Working capital: about 6 weeks of mature-year costs and slow-paying wholesale accounts | $110,000 | 12.2% |
| Total start-up capital | $898,225 | 100.0% |
Rent during fit-out is three months. Contingency applies to everything above it except the bond and working capital. Equipment on loan is $4,500 for each of the first nine wholesale accounts, because roasters often supply equipment and training to win a café, and the typical price band that includes equipment and support starts at $42 a kg.
The roastery-café earns $147,869 a year after renewal and $52,669 after paying yourself
One full trading year at maturity: 140 café customers a day at $15.61 each over 360 days, 8.8 wholesale accounts buying 16 kg a week at $36 a kg, and $96 a kg for bags sold in store and online. Year 1 is lower because I ramp demand to 55% of maturity, then 85%, then 100% from year 3, while café staffing has a floor and does not shrink with it. Modelled
Bars show each line as a share of revenue. Every cost line is an assumption, so the bars are striped. The last line is the money check: what the business earns once your own time is paid at $95,200 a year ($85,000 plus 12% super, above the $70,000 to $78,000 advertised for Melbourne café managers because you would also roast and sell). A pass needs at least 10% of capital ($89,823); it earns $52,669, so the check is thin.
Trade is steadier than a seasonal business: my index runs from 0.85 in January to 1.07 in March, so the cash dip is mostly one summer month. The larger risk is volume, not season. Modelled
A weak market loses money; a strong one pays well, and it is not the likely one
The base case is 140 customers a day, 1.5 times the national average café revenue of $518,519 (IBISWorld's $14 billion across 27,000 cafés), and 6% of the 210 addressable wholesale accounts after a 70% reach factor, because the owner is also running a café. The weak case is 95 customers a day, 3% of accounts and a 5% price cut to win trade. The strong case is 200 a day and 10%. Modelled
| Scenario | Customers a day | Accounts | Revenue | EBITDA | Profit, owner-run | Profit, owner paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak market3% of accounts, 5% price cut to win trade | 95 | 4.4 | $694,187 | $9,924 | -$46,826 | -$142,026 |
| Base market1.5 times the national average café; about a fair share of wholesale | 140 | 8.8 | $1,154,157 | $204,619 | $147,869 | $52,669 |
| Strong market2.2 times the national average café | 200 | 14.7 | $1,723,214 | $429,433 | $372,683 | $277,483 |
| Year 1, base market55% of mature demand; staffing does not scale down | 77 | 4.9 | $634,786 | -$3,453 | -$60,203 | -$155,403 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Profit is after renewal and before tax. Owner-run takes no wage; owner paid subtracts $95,200. A weak first year loses about $110,534 at EBITDA, so the safe funding level is the $898,225 outlay plus that loss, about $1,008,759.
Customers a day, accounts won and coffee cost matter more than rent
Change in mature-year profit after renewal, on the owner-paid basis, when one input moves and the rest stays put. Left bar is the bad move, right bar the good move. Customers swing profit by $67,869 either way, wholesale accounts by $41,692 down and $55,590 up, and a $3 a kg move in green coffee by $33,152. A 25% rent cut is worth only $14,625, so negotiating rent helps less than winning customers. Modelled
The business breaks even at about 79 customers a day, but break-even is not the test
At the base wholesale volume the café needs about 79 customers a day to cover every cost including renewal, so the downside is a business that pays you little, not one that fails at once. The harder test is the wage: 118 customers a day beats a market wage, and 155 earns 10% of capital on top. Holding customers at 140, you need 8.7% of accounts, not 6%, or a wholesale price of about $41.24 a kg instead of $36, to reach that 10%. Modelled
Profit after paying yourself. Green earns at least 10% of capital on top of a wage
Cells show mature-year profit after renewal and after $95,200 for your time, by café customers a day (rows) and the share of addressable wholesale accounts you win (columns). Green earns at least $89,823, which is 10% of the capital. Amber is positive but below that, and red is worse than being employed. The outlined cell is the base case. Modelled
| Café customers | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 a day 1.1× avg café | -$99,877 | -$72,082 | -$44,287 | -$16,492 | $11,303 | $39,098 |
| 120 a day 1.3× avg café | -$51,399 | -$23,604 | $4,191 | $31,986 | $59,781 | $87,576 |
| 140 a day 1.5× avg café | -$2,921 | $24,874 | $52,669 | $80,464 | $108,259 | $136,054 |
| 160 a day 1.7× avg café | $45,557 | $73,352 | $101,147 | $128,942 | $156,737 | $184,531 |
| 180 a day 2.0× avg café | $94,035 | $121,829 | $149,624 | $177,419 | $205,214 | $233,009 |
| 200 a day 2.2× avg café | $142,512 | $170,307 | $198,102 | $225,897 | $253,692 | $281,487 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all shares.
Café traffic is the stronger lever. At 160 customers a day and 6% of accounts the profit after your wage is $101,147, but at 120 a day it is $4,191 and the roaster cannot rescue it: even $59,781 at 10% of accounts is thin. If both customers and accounts disappoint (100 a day and 2%), the business loses -$99,877 a year. Modelled
The base case does not return the capital in five years, even with nothing paid for your labour
Cumulative cash if you run the roastery-café yourself and take no wage, starting from the $898,225 outlay. Year 1 uses 55% of mature demand and year 2 uses 85%. Renewal starts in year 2. Above the dotted line the capital is recovered. Modelled
| Path | Year 1 cash | After year 3 | After year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong market every year (200 a day, 10% of accounts) | $120,195 | -$135,744 | +$609,621 |
| Base market every year (140 a day, 6% of accounts) | -$3,453 | -$675,297 | -$379,560 |
| Base market, slow build (35%, 60%, 85% of maturity) | -$95,929 | -$952,725 | -$656,988 |
| Weak market every year (95 a day, 3% of accounts, 5% price cut) | -$110,534 | -$1,142,564 | -$1,236,215 |
At the base mature profit of $147,869 a year, the capital comes back in about 7.6 years owner-run. Paying yourself $95,200 stretches that to about 21 years, and leaves the base path at -$855,560 after five. The slow build reaches 35%, 60% and 85% of mature demand in years 1 to 3. No tax, finance cost or resale value is included.
Only the full roastery-café passes the wage test, but the industrial-unit route comes within $4,749 of it on $338,627 less capital
The same model with route-specific inputs. Profit is mature-year, after renewal and owner-run, in a weak, base and strong market. Owner paid is the base market after paying yourself $95,200, with the money check beside it. The last column is cumulative cash after five base-market years, owner-run. Modelled
| Route | Capital | Revenue | Weak | Base | Strong | Owner paid | 5-year cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 Roastery-cafe150 m² back-street premises at $420 per m² all-in, 12 kg roaster, cafe, wholesale, retail and online | $898,225 | $1,154,157 | -$46,826 | $147,869 | $372,683 | $52,669Money check thin | -$379,560 |
| R2 Cafe first85 m² shopfront at $610 per m² all-in, espresso-led cafe, beans bought from another roaster | $446,945 | $674,136 | -$68,173 | $31,807 | $137,218 | -$63,393Money check fails | -$414,201 |
| R3 Roaster first110 m² industrial unit at $215 per m² all-in, 12 kg roaster, wholesale and online led, takeaway counter five days | $559,598 | $632,311 | -$51,059 | $90,451 | $246,629 | -$4,749Money check fails | -$251,499 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
R2 buys beans at $36 a kg from another roaster, trades 120 customers a day and needs 150 to beat a wage. R3 sits in an industrial unit at $215 per m², sells about 1,500 kg a year online and wins 12.6 wholesale accounts, with the owner roasting and packing about 30 hours a week; its small counter sells at $8.83 a customer. R3 needs the least capital of the routes with a roaster ($559,598) and its profit after paying yourself is -$4,749, but that depends on winning 12.6 accounts, more than the fair share of 8.4, because the owner sells full time and runs no café. That account count is the assumption to test first. R1 assumes the owner roasts 12 hours a week.
What would flip the verdict
- Written intent from about 4.9 wholesale venues before you sign a lease. That is year 1 of the base case; the model needs about 8.8 accounts at 16 kg a week by year 3. Without them the roaster is a $95,000 ornament.
- A site where the landlord and Yarra Council both accept roasting and a flue. I could not confirm that any back-street premises allow it, and the Preston roaster case shows what happens when odour controls fail.
- Evidence of 155 customers a day, not 140. At 140 the café pays a wage and little more. Count customers at three competing cafés for a week, at the hours you would trade, before you rely on 140.
- Quotes that lower the capital. A smaller or used roaster, a lower fit-out price per m² and a landlord contribution each cut capital without cutting sales; none is sized here.
- Funding of about $1,008,759, so that a weak first year does not end the business before the second.
Try different numbers
Only the figures in this section change. Each line starts at the mature-year amount in the report. Costs stay as you set them when revenue changes.
Your time is charged at a market wage for a manager who also roasts.
The roasters cluster in the back streets; the footfall is on Smith and Johnston streets
Smith Street runs from Victoria Parade to Queens Parade on the Collingwood and Fitzroy border and is served by tram route 86; Yarra Council describes it as a shopping and nightlife street. Three Smith Street shops were marked leased between December 2025 and March 2026 (450 Smith Street, 313 m²; 46 Smith Street, 65 m²; 60 Smith Street, a 247 m² licensed venue), and 404 Smith Street is marketed for a café, restaurant, bar or takeaway, so premises do turn over. None shows a rent. Public
The roasters sit on the industrial back streets near Wellington, Rupert, Sackville and Langridge streets. A roaster needs a flue, gas supply, noise control and neighbours who tolerate the smell. Industry Beans lodged a Yarra planning application for a café "including ancillary coffee roaster, shop and tasting room" in a warehouse building with existing use rights, which suggests council treats the roaster as ancillary to the café rather than as an industry in its own right. I did not read the Yarra planning scheme or the zones, so ask the council whether your site and use are allowed. Public
EPA Victoria issued a remedial notice to a Preston roaster after residents reported "persistent acrid, burning toast and burning coffee odours and smoke" entering their homes; it required odour surveys, a community contact and monthly updates (reviewed 12 May 2022). A council food premises registration is also needed: Yarra lists a Class 2 application at $1,068 and renewal at $712.05 a year, and says plan assessment before building work is optional but recommended. Confirm your class with the council. Public
| Route | What it is | Evidence | My read |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Back-street shell near Wellington, Rupert and Sackville streetsThe base case | A 120 to 200 m² warehouse or workshop converted to a café with an ancillary roaster | Listings seen for 1 Mater Street (325 m², Commercial 1 zone), 75 Rupert Street (325 m², open plan), 139 Cromwell Street (285 m²) and 1 Budd Street (260 m²). All are marked leased or undated; only Mater Street shows a rent. Roaster-cafés already trade on Rupert, Sackville, Langridge and Wellington streets | Best fit for a flue and a roaster, and less passing trade than Smith Street. Medium odds of finding a site and consent. This is R1 |
| B. Smith or Johnston Street shopfront | An 80 to 150 m² ground-floor shop for a café only | Three Smith Street leases between December 2025 and March 2026; 404 Smith Street marketed for hospitality; a 46 m² Johnston Street studio listed at $600 a week; 474 Smith Street leased to a government tenant at $118,465 a year gross for 221 m² | Best footfall and the highest rent. A flue and odour on a retail strip are unlikely to be approved, so buy beans in. This is R2 |
| C. Industrial unit, roaster first | A 100 to 120 m² unit with roller door, wholesale and online led, a small takeaway counter | 1 Mater Street at about $152 per m² net plus $21 per m² outgoings; 139 Cromwell Street and 1 Budd Street leased in 2026, rents not shown | Lowest rent and lowest capital with a roaster; almost no walk-in trade. This is R3 |
| D. Buy an existing café or roaster | Take over a trading business | I did not review business-for-sale listings. Yarra has food and beverage businesses listed on commercialrealestate.com.au, not read | Worth a broker call: trading history would replace many of my assumptions |
| E. Contract roasting first | Have an established roaster roast your blends while you build accounts and the café | Not researched. No price found for contract or shared-roasting capacity in Melbourne | Could cut $95,000 of capital for the first year and test accounts; ask roasters directly |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Rents run $173 to $678 per m² a year on three non-café listings; my base case is $420
The only rents I could find, and none is a café or roastery. My assumptions are $420 per m² all-in for R1 (a back-street site), $610 for R2 (a shopfront) and $215 for R3 (an industrial unit). Rents are ex-GST, as listed. Public Modelled
| Listing | Area m² | Rent a year | Per m² | At 150 m² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mater Street, CollingwoodWarehouse and studio, zoned Commercial 1, rent plus outgoings and GST; outgoings estimated at $6,800 a year; undated listing | 325 | $56,300$4,692 a month | $173 | $25,985 |
| 474 Smith Street, CollingwoodShop and offices, Commonwealth Government tenant, gross rent, lease 26 October 2021 to 25 October 2027 | 221 | $118,465$9,872 a month | $536 | $80,406 |
| 117 Johnston Street, CollingwoodShopfront studio, $600 a week ex-GST, currently occupied | 46 | $31,200$2,600 a month | $678 | $101,739 |
Sources: realcommercial.com.au and commercialrealestate.com.au listings and the Creative Spaces listing for 117 Johnston Street, read 17 October 2026. The Mater Street page lists rates $4,000, water $1,150 and insurance $1,650 a year as estimated outgoings. The Smith Street rent is gross, for a government office tenant, so it is not a café rent. The Johnston Street studio is 46 m², so the per-m² figure overstates what 150 m² would cost. Leased with rent not shown: 46 Smith Street (65 m², 2 February 2026), 450 Smith Street (313 m², 19 December 2025), 60 Smith Street (247 m², 19 March 2026), 139 Cromwell Street (285 m², 21 January 2026), 1 Budd Street (260 m², 5 March 2026). I could not read all of realcommercial.com.au, so this is not the whole market.
- Is a roaster with a flue and gas supply permitted in the building, and who pays for them?
- What are the rent, outgoings, incentive and fit-out contribution, and what does the make-good clause cover?
- Can the lease start only once planning and building permits are granted?
- What are the term, options, rent reviews and personal guarantee requirements?
- Who are the neighbours, and have any complained about odour, noise or deliveries?
- Yarra Council: is a roaster allowed as ancillary to a café on this site, and which permits and conditions apply?
- EPA Victoria: what odour and emission controls will it expect for a 12 kg roaster beside homes?
- What does property, public liability, product and business-interruption cover cost for a roaster-café?
- Which food premises class applies, and does plan assessment before fit-out save time?
- What key-person and income-protection cover is available for an owner who also roasts?
Strong local demand, but customers and accounts must be taken from established roasters
No public source gives café sales, customer counts or footfall for Collingwood, so I benchmark against the national average café and the local population, then size the wholesale pool bottom-up. Modelled
| Step | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood residents | 9,179 | 2021 Census; median age 33; 4,489 occupied dwellings, 64.3% rented Public |
| Median weekly household income | $2,130 | 2021 Census; 47.6% of employed residents are professionals and 17.3% managers Public |
| Worked from home on Census day | 48.0% | 2,825 people, in a pandemic year; helps daytime local trade, but means fewer commuters. 8.9% walked to work Public |
| Average café revenue, Australia | $518,519 | $14 billion across more than 27,000 cafés and coffee shops (IBISWorld via the ABC and CommBank, 2025) Public |
| Base café sales | $786,492 | 140 customers a day x 360 days x $15.61 (1.2 drinks at $5.90 plus 55% buying $15.50 of food): 1.5 times the average Modelled |
| Weak and strong café sales | 1.0 and 2.2 | times the national average, at 95 and 200 customers a day Modelled |
Collingwood residents are young, renting and well paid, and 219 of them already work in cafés and restaurants (3.7% of employed residents). That is demand and a labour pool, and also a sign of how many cafés compete for the same people. Public
| Wholesale pool | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Espresso-serving venues within about 5 km | 600 | My assumption. Yarra's audit counts 39 cafés and restaurants on Johnston Street alone, among 71 occupied ground-floor businesses Public Modelled |
| Open to a new independent roaster at 35% | 210 | Many venues are tied to a supplier or a chain Modelled |
| Roasted coffee they buy | 174,720 kg | 16 kg a week each: a café making 100 coffees a day uses about 13 kg a week at 19 g a shot Modelled |
| Value of the pool | $6,289,920 | At $36 a kg; typical café price $32 to $38, premium with equipment $42 or more (Seven Miles, January 2025) Public |
| Fair share among 25 roasters | 8.4 | I can name nine roasters; I assume 25 compete for these accounts. The base case wins 8.8 Modelled |
Threat ratings are my judgement. Competitor revenue is not public and I did not check prices by phone. I found these businesses from listings and web pages, so the list is not complete. Hours and categories are as listed on 17 October 2026. Public
| Rival | Threat | Trading detail | What matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proud Mary and Aunty Peg's200 Wellington Street (listed); Proud Mary café at 172 Oxford Street | High | Proud Mary opened in 2009; Broadsheet says its coffee is roasted at a separate site nearby. Listed hours 8am to 5pm daily. Its online range runs from $22 for blends to $77 for a Geisha, with most single origins at $34 to $39 (pack weights not shown). Aunty Peg's is listed at the same Wellington Street address | The best-known specialty name in the suburb, with a premium range you would be priced against |
| Allpress Collingwood80 Rupert Street | High | Described as a roastery and café (Broadsheet); listed as a café and wholesaler, open Monday to Saturday 7:30am to 3pm, closed Sunday | An international brand with a roastery on the industrial streets you would also use |
| ACOFFEE30 Sackville Street | High | Listed as a coffee roastery and café, open seven days (7am to 3pm weekdays, 8am to 4pm weekends). Bags run from $24 for espresso blends to $56 for a Colombian filter; the site has a wholesale page | The closest match to your concept: roaster-café, retail range and wholesale |
| Secondipity Roasters90 Langridge Street | Medium | Listed as a café, 7am to 4pm weekdays and 9am to 4pm weekends. "Roasters" is in its name; I did not confirm roasting on site | Another roaster-style café within a few streets |
| Café Le Reve1/9 Sackville Street | Medium | Listed as a café, tea store and coffee roastery, open 8am to 6pm daily | Competes on long hours; small independent |
| Fitzroy and Abbotsford roastersIndustry Beans, Toby's Estate, Blume Coffee, Coffee Supreme | High | Industry Beans, 70-76 Westgarth Street, Fitzroy, applied for a café with an ancillary roaster, shop and tasting room. Toby's Estate is at 35 Rose Street, Fitzroy. Blume Coffee, 2 Yarra Street, Abbotsford, opens Tuesday to Saturday. Coffee Supreme, 28-36 Grosvenor Street, Abbotsford, is closed Sunday | Each is within about 2 km and bids for the same wholesale accounts |
| Specialty cafés that may buy inINI Coffee, 62 Smith Street; City Saints, Mansard Lane | Low to medium | Both serve specialty coffee. I did not confirm whether either roasts or who supplies them | Possible wholesale accounts, or direct rivals for café trade |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
I did not check national or chain roasters' wholesale terms, supermarket and drive-through coffee, or home-delivery subscriptions, all of which compete for the same drinker.
No Collingwood café price list or sales figure is public, so price and volume are assumptions you must test
| Item | Assumed | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Café drink price | $5.90 | Average coffee. The average flat white is about $6.00 in most capitals outside Sydney and Perth (CommBank, 30 January 2026); the national average for a hot drink is $5.42 (Compare the Market, 1 October 2026) Public Modelled |
| Average ticket | $15.61 | 1.2 drinks plus 55% of customers buying $15.50 of food Modelled |
| Wholesale price | $36 a kg | Typical café price $32 to $38 a kg, premium with equipment and support $42 or more (Seven Miles, January 2025) Public Modelled |
| Retail and online | $96 a kg | $24 for 250 g after discounts. ACOFFEE lists bags from $24, Proud Mary blends from $22 Public Modelled |
| Green coffee, landed | $16 a kg | Arabica futures were about 305 US cents a pound on 16 October 2026, about A$9.71 a kg at 0.6928 (down 23% on the year, up 10% on the month). A specialty premium plus freight and duty takes it to my $16; a February 2025 trade article put specialty $5 to $30 a kg above the commodity price. With 15% roast loss, a roasted kg costs about $19.67 Public Modelled |
| Café staff, blended | $44.59 | An hour with 17% on-costs: casual Level 3 at $34.96 on weekdays, $41.96 on Saturdays and $48.95 on Sundays, weighted 70/15/15 Public Modelled |
| Owner, market wage | $95,200 | $85,000 plus 12% super. Seek on 17 October 2026 showed Melbourne café managers at $70,000 to $77,000 (MAKER Coffee) and an assistant café manager at $73,000 to $78,000 (The Big Group). PayScale's $77,166 for a Melbourne roaster is based on six profiles updated in July 2022, so I did not use it Public Modelled |
The Fair Work Commission's 2026 review raised award minimum rates 4.75% from 1 July 2026 and the national minimum wage to $26.44 an hour. The rates above come from a third-party summary of the Restaurant Industry Award, which generally covers cafés, because I could not read the official pay guide; check it before you run payroll. I did not research payroll tax, so confirm whether it applies at about $329,344 of wages.
Trade is steady through the year; the pressure is on margins and prices
Trade index by month, where 1.00 is an average month. The index is my assumption: January is quiet while locals and offices are away, March to May and October and November are busiest, and winter holds up on hot drinks. Modelled
| Measure | Fact |
|---|---|
| Industry size | More than 27,000 cafés and coffee shops, 139,000 employees and a $14 billion industry in 2025 (IBISWorld via the ABC, quoted by CommBank) |
| Margins and failures | Café profit margins fell from about 3.5% to under 2.5%, according to the Australian Restaurant and Cafe Association. CreditorWatch data it cites shows one in nine cafés and restaurants went into liquidation in the past 12 months (City News, 10 January 2026) |
| Coffee prices | The average flat white is up about 30% since Covid (CommBank, 30 January 2026). Padre Coffee's Ben White expected cafés to add another $1 to $1.50 in 2026 (City News) |
| Green coffee | Arabica futures were about US$3.70 a pound in January 2026 against a record near US$4.20 in February 2025 (Rabobank via City News), and about US$3.05 on 16 October 2026 (Trading Economics). The last month was up about 10%, so the fall is not a trend you can bank on |
| Smith Street | Time Out named it the "world's coolest street" in 2021 (Yarra Council); tram route 86 runs along it. I found no pedestrian counts |
Hospitality staff are available; a head roaster is the scarce skill
The base case staffs about 134 café hours a week (39% of café sales), which is a floor of 40 hours plus 0.67 hours for each daily customer. A Saturday hour costs 20% more than a weekday hour and a Sunday hour 40% more. Roasting, packing and delivery come to about 20 hours a week at base volumes; I assume you do 12 of them and pay a casual Level 4 at $43.07 loaded for the rest. Seek's own page for coffee roasters gave no salary, so I could not check what a head roaster costs. Public Modelled
I did not research barista training pipelines, visa-restricted hours or kitchen-hand supply. Check the pay guide for Saturday, Sunday and public holiday rates before you roster.
A gated plan to a June 2028 opening
Planning and a roaster delivery take time, so I plan to open on 1 June 2028, earlier only if a used or refurbished roaster is on hand. Money is committed only after each gate. Dates are my proposal.
| By | Step | Gate: stop if |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2026 | Test demand. Visit 30 cafés within about 5 km. Ask who supplies them, what they pay per kg, how much they use a week and whether they would sign a letter of intent. Count customers at three competing cafés for a week at the hours you would trade | Fewer than 4.9 venues commit in writing, or the counts do not support about 155 customers a day |
| 31 Mar 2027 | Site, permits and funding. Shortlist three back-street sites and one shopfront. Book Yarra's business concierge and a planning pre-application for a roaster ancillary to a café. Get landlord consent for a flue. Collect quotes for the fit-out, a new, used and 6 kg roaster, and the afterburner. Raise about $1,008,759 | No site where landlord and council accept roasting, or funding below $898,225 |
| 30 Jun 2027 | Lease and orders. Sign the lease only if it depends on planning and building permits. Order the roaster; one dealer page quotes about 12 months for new units | Permits not granted, or fit-out quotes more than 10% above $405,000 |
| Jul 2027 to May 2028 | Fit-out and set-up. Build, register the food premises, hire a head barista and kitchen lead, open green coffee and packaging accounts, insure, build the brand and online shop | Insurance or compliance terms not agreed |
| 1 Jun 2028 | Open. Track customers a day and accounts against the break-even pace | By 31 Mar 2029, fewer than about 79 customers a day (break-even after renewal), or fewer than 4.9 wholesale accounts |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Ranked by dollar impact on mature-year profit after renewal. Values come from the model and move with your quotes. Modelled
| # | Opportunity | Annual value | Effort |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20% more café customers (168 a day)A reputation for the coffee, breakfast and lunch trade, loyalty, weekend traffic | $67,869 a year | High |
| 2 | Win 10% of accounts, not 6%Letters of intent before opening, tasting nights, training, fast delivery | $55,590 a year | High |
| 3 | Cut green coffee cost by $3 a kgDirect trade, forward contracts, a bulk buying group | $33,152 a year | Medium |
| 4 | Cut staff cost 10%Rostering to demand, fewer open hours, owner on the floor at peaks | $32,934 a year | Medium |
| 5 | Lift the average ticket 5%Food menu, retail add-ons, a second drink | $27,586 a year | Low |
| 6 | Raise the wholesale price by $3 a kgPremium single origins, equipment and training bundled in | $21,288 a year | Medium |
| 7 | Cut running costs 15%Insurance and utilities comparison, shared deliveries | $15,975 a year | Low |
| 8 | Negotiate rent down 25%Incentives, a longer term, landlord fit-out contribution | $14,625 a year | Medium |
| 9 | A smaller or used roasterAt about 15% use, a 12 kg machine is oversized for base volumes | Not sized; no quote | Low |
| 10 | Sell spare roasting capacityContract roasting for other brands, private label, subscriptions | Not sized | High |
- Which structure suits a roastery-café, and when do I register for GST? How is GST treated on bagged beans, café drinks and wholesale sales?
- How are the fit-out, roaster and van depreciated, and what can I write off in year 1?
- Does payroll tax apply at about $329,344 of wages? I did not research the Victorian threshold.
- How should I fund working capital for slow-paying wholesale accounts?
- What income protection should I hold while the business depends on me?
- What is a landed price per kg for specialty green coffee in 30 kg and 69 kg lots, and can I fix it for six months?
- What does a 6 kg and a used 12 kg roaster cost with an afterburner, delivered, installed and commissioned?
- Would you contract roast my blends for the first year, and at what price per kg?
- What equipment, training and credit terms do existing wholesale accounts expect?
- What delivery routes and minimums make a wholesale account worth serving in Collingwood and nearby?
Cited findings
At least nine roasters or roaster-cafés trade within about 2 km
Why it matters: the wholesale pool is shared with Allpress, Proud Mary, ACOFFEE and others, and the café trade competes with every specialty café nearby.
Source: Google Places listings, Broadsheet and competitor pages, read 17 October 2026; Yarra planning application for Industry Beans.
The average café turns over about $518,519, and margins are under 2.5%
Why it matters: the base case needs 1.5 times the average café to pay a wage, and one in nine cafés and restaurants went into liquidation in 12 months.
Source: IBISWorld via CommBank, 30 January 2026; City News, 10 January 2026, citing ARCA and CreditorWatch.
Collingwood is young, renting and well paid, with a large hospitality workforce
Why it matters: demand and staff are available, but so is competition for both.
Source: ABS 2021 Census QuickStats for Collingwood (Vic.).
Council and the EPA are real hurdles for a roaster
Why it matters: a roaster needs a flue and odour control, and a Preston roaster was ordered to survey odour and update residents monthly.
Source: EPA Victoria media release, reviewed 12 May 2022; planningalerts.org.au, Industry Beans application; Yarra Council food premises page.
Awards rose 4.75% on 1 July 2026, and bean prices are volatile
Why it matters: staff are the largest cost, and green coffee swung 10% in a month.
Source: Squire Patton Boggs on the 2026 Annual Wage Review; RosterElf and Workstem award summaries; Trading Economics, 16 October 2026.
At 140 customers a day and 6% of accounts, the roastery-café earns $147,869 after renewal
Why it matters: after a market wage the profit is $52,669, a 5.9% return on $898,225, and a weak market loses $46,826.
Source: my model, Modelled. Break-even is about 79 customers a day.
The two lighter routes do not pay a wage
Why it matters: R2's profit after paying yourself is -$63,393 and R3's is -$4,749, so skipping the roaster or the café cuts capital but does not fix the economics.
Source: my model, Modelled.
52 out of 100, which is VERIFY and 12 points above AVOID
Equal-weight mean of six scored dimensions (weights add to 100). Every dimension has a score, so none is excluded.
What pushed the score up
- 9,179 residents, median age 33, and a median household income of $2,130 a week
- A café-literate district: Smith Street, Johnston Street and the back-street roasters
- Steady trade through the year, and a deep hospitality labour pool
- Premises do turn over: three Smith Street shops leased in four months
What held it down
- At least nine roasters within about 2 km, led by Allpress, Proud Mary and ACOFFEE
- No rent found for a café or roastery, and a roaster needs planning and EPA clearance
- Café margins under 2.5% and one in nine cafés and restaurants in liquidation
- A capital need of $898,225 to earn about a salary
Ranked by severity
Not enough customers: café trade may be below 140 a day
Action: count customers at three competing cafés before signing. At 95 a day the business loses $46,826 a year after renewal, and staffing has a floor that does not fall with sales.
A large lease and fit-out with no resale value
Action: sign only with permit conditions, negotiate an incentive and make-good limits, and avoid a personal guarantee beyond the bond. Fit-out is $405,000 of the $898,225.
Council or EPA refuses or restricts roasting
Action: get planning advice and landlord consent for the flue before the lease; budget for an afterburner and odour surveys; talk to neighbours.
Wholesale accounts are slow to win or need discounts
Action: collect letters of intent before buying the roaster. A $3 a kg price cut costs about $21,288 a year, and each lost account costs the margin on about 830 kg.
Established roasters respond with price and equipment
Action: compete on a clear niche, such as a roaster-café with a specific origin or service promise; do not assume you can undercut Allpress or Proud Mary.
Labour cost and availability
Action: roster tightly to demand; a 10% rise in staff cost costs $32,934 a year. Awards rose 4.75% on 1 July 2026.
Green coffee price swings
Action: ask importers about fixed-price forward contracts. A $3 a kg move is worth $33,152 a year, and futures moved about 10% in the last month.
The owner is the café, the roaster and the salesperson
Action: hire a strong head barista and kitchen lead early, and ask about key-person and income-protection cover.
Capital and funding tied up for years
Action: the base case returns the capital in about 7.6 years owner-run; fund about $1,008,759 and do not rely on year-1 profit.
- Written intent from at least 4.9 wholesale venues
- Counts supporting about 155 customers a day at the site and hours you choose
- Landlord and council consent for a roaster and flue, in writing
- Quotes that confirm capital at or below $898,225
- Funding of about $1,008,759 in hand, and insurance and EPA terms agreed
- Any lease, read by a solicitor
- Roaster, afterburner and fit-out prices from real quotes
- Award classification and pay rates before you hire
- Green coffee price and supply terms
- Liability cover, key-person cover and odour and noise obligations
How far to trust each part
| Part | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Money | Low. Customers, accounts, prices, hours and costs are my assumptions, with tested ranges. No Collingwood trading data or quote underlies them. |
| Market size | Low to medium. Census data and the national café benchmark are public. The venue count, open share and usage per account are assumed. |
| Competitors | Medium for who and where, low for how they trade. Names, addresses and hours come from listings; revenue, prices and supply terms were not checked. |
| Premises | Low. Three non-café rents and several leased listings with no rent. No hospitality or roastery rent found. |
| Labour | Medium. Award rates come from secondary summaries; job ads give manager pay; head roaster pay not found. |
| Regulation | Low to medium. Council fees read; planning scheme, zones and EPA conditions were not researched in depth. |
| Location score | Low to medium. My judgement from the evidence above. |
Sources: ABS 2021 Census QuickStats, Collingwood (Vic.); Yarra City Council, Smith Street page, Johnston Street precinct pulse and food premises registration page; realcommercial.com.au and commercialrealestate.com.au listings for Smith, Mater, Rupert, Cromwell and Budd streets, read 17 October 2026; Creative Spaces listing for 117 Johnston Street; Google Places listings for the roasters named, read 17 October 2026; Broadsheet entries for Proud Mary and Allpress; Allpress and ACOFFEE websites; Proud Mary online shop; planningalerts.org.au, Yarra applications for 70-76 Westgarth Street; EPA Victoria, media release on the Preston roaster, reviewed 12 May 2022; CommBank, "Why your morning coffee is still getting more expensive", 30 January 2026; City News, "No let-up in coffee prices as bean supplies stabilise", 10 January 2026; The New Daily and Compare the Market, 1 October 2026; Seven Miles, wholesale coffee price guide, 1 January 2025; Beanscene, green coffee prices, 19 February 2025; Trading Economics, arabica futures, 16 October 2026; exchange-rates.org, AUD/USD on 1 October 2026; Dipacci, Probat P12 listing; whatsthedamage.com.au and hospitalityhub.com.au café fit-out guides, 2026; Squire Patton Boggs on the 2026 Annual Wage Review; RosterElf and Workstem award summaries for 1 July 2026; Seek, Melbourne café manager jobs, read 17 October 2026; PayScale, Melbourne coffee roaster (not used). Analysis only. This is not legal or financial advice.